The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a “worst-case scenario” not just for the European nation but the world at large, according to former intelligence and military officials.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine Thursday local time. World leaders and diplomats widely condemned the attack and promised strong sanctions in response.
The situation for Ukraine presents a worst-case scenario as Russia attacks major cities and key locations, including an airbase in Kyiv, but the ramifications will extend beyond just Ukraine or Europe.
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“We thought we’d established this post-Cold War, new world order when we stood up for Kuwait against Saddam Hussein, the idea being that … you have to respect the territorial integrity of other nations,” WHD News contributor and former CIA official Dan Hoffman told WHD News Digital. “That’s over right now. Forget it. It’s finished.”
“We’ve got the potential for a free-for-all where you have these rogue states who realize the Russia playbook might work for them,” he added. “If you own the battle space in your own neighborhood, maybe you can go out and settle your own scores, and nobody’s going to do much to interfere with you.”
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President Biden and European leaders have announced a wide range of sanctions that aim to not only cripple the Russian economy but also degrade its ability to build and compete economically or technologically for years to come.
Biden argued that his sanctions, which includes strict export control of technology and a freeze on all VTB Bank – the central bank of Russia – assets touching the U.S. financial system.
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But James Carafano, Vice-President of National Security & Foreign Policy at Heritage at the Heritage Foundation, argues that the Biden administration’s playbook is “the same playbook as the Obama administration,” which shows other countries that “they know exactly what to expect.”
“Look, we see this playing out in real time in Iran even as we watch the Ukraine crisis unfold,” Carafano told WHD News Digital. “They want an Iran deal, and their idea is they’re going to give them such a good deal and bribe them so much that the Iranians will cooperate. That’s nonsense.”
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“And when it fails, they will incrementally go back and try to patch it up, and the Iranians know that, so they’re going to demand the best possible deal, and when they start to violate it, knowing the Biden administration’s first impulse will be to look away and do nothing.”